Fed's Rate Cut: Impact on Mortgage Trends

On September 18th, the Federal Reserve implemented a rate cut that has sent ripples through the mortgage industry, bringing the average 30-year fixed-rate to a compelling 6.09%—the lowest since February 2023. This development presents a unique scenario for both potential homebuyers and current homeowners considering refinancing. In this blog post, we'll dissect the immediate effects of this rate cut and its potential long-term implications for the mortgage market. The Immediate Impact on Mortgage Rates In anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision, mortgage rates had already begun to trend downward. This is evident from the recent figures released by Freddie Mac, showing a drop from 6.2% to 6.09% within a week. However, despite the Fed's aggressive move, experts like Orphe Divounguy of Zillow Home Loans warn not to expect a continued steep decline. The central bank's step back from purchasing mortgage debt means that the immediate future of mortgage rates isn't guaranteed to fall further. Interestingly, just days post-announcement, rates saw a minor uptick according to Mortgage News Daily, positioning the 30-year fixed-rate at 6.17%. This fluctuation suggests a market still finding its footing in the wake of the Fed's cut, embodying the uncertainty that many economists predict will characterize the coming months. Refinancing Surge and Purchase Applications In the wake of lower rates, there's been a significant surge in refinancing applications, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The refinance index rose by 24% from the previous week, indicating that many homeowners are seizing the opportunity to reduce their mortgage costs. Concurrently, purchase applications have increased by 15%, bringing them roughly on par with figures from the previous year. The uptick in both refinancing and new home purchase applications can be largely attributed to improved affordability. With rates dipping, albeit temporarily, buyers previously sidelined by high rates are now reevaluating their options. What to Expect Moving Forward The general consensus among real estate economists is mixed. While some, like Ralph McLaughlin of Realtor.com, forecast that rates might stabilize around 6% to 6.2% for the remainder of 2024, others anticipate a potential dip into the upper-5% range by next spring. This predicted reduction in mortgage rates could reignite home price growth, particularly if the housing inventory remains sluggish. Prospective buyers, meanwhile, are advised to stay informed and be ready to act. The current state of flux means that locking in a rate at the right time could be crucial. As noted by Kristin Sanchez, a Redfin Premier agent, there's a palpable sense of anticipation among buyers, who are closely monitoring rate changes before making their move. This could potentially lead to a busier than usual market during the winter months, traditionally a slower season for home buying. Conclusion The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is a significant development for the mortgage landscape, influencing everything from rates to buyer enthusiasm. While it's clear that this has already spurred a wave of refinancing and renewed interest in home purchases, the long-term impact remains uncertain. Buyers and homeowners should remain agile, keeping a close eye on rate changes and market trends. For those considering entering the housing market or refinancing, now may be a time of opportunity that shouldn't be overlooked.

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Real Estate Is Still the Best Long-Term Investment [INFOGRAPHIC]

Some HighlightsAccording to a recent poll from Gallup, real estate has been voted the best long-term investment for twelve straight years.That’s because a home is so much more just than a roof over your head. It’s also an asset that typically grows in value over time. If you’ve been debating if it makes more sense to rent or buy, connect with a real estate agent to talk about why homeownership can be a better bet in the long run. 

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Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up

You may have heard that there are more brand-new homes available right now than the norm. Today, about one in three homes on the market are newly built. And if you’re wondering what that means for the housing market and for your own move, here’s what you need to know.Why This Isn’t Like 2008People remember what happened to the housing market back in 2008. And one of the factors that contributed to that crash was that there were too many homes for sale. While only part of the oversupply back then came from builders, the lasting impact is that some people still feel uneasy when they hear new home construction has ramped up.Even though the supply of new homes has grown this year, the data shows there’s no need to worry. Builders aren’t overbuilding, they’re just catching up. The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. Following the crash in 2008, there was a long period of underbuilding (shown in red). And it wasn’t until recently that we finally met the long-term average for how many homes are built in a typical year. This shows, that even with the increase in new builds we’ve seen lately, there won’t suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. There’s too much of a gap to make up after over a decade of underbuilding. And if you’re still worried builders are overdoing it, here’s something else that should be reassuring. New Home Construction May Be at Its Peak for the YearThe latest data from the Census on housing starts (homes where builders just broke ground) and permits (homes where builders can start development soon) shows builders are slowing down their pace right now. Why is that?They’re responding to still high mortgage rates and how those are impacting buyer demand. Basically, they’re pulling back appropriately in response to what’s happening in the market. As an article from HousingWire explains: “Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses.” Builders remember what happened when they overbuilt in the crash, and they’re looking to avoid a repeat of that. So, they’re being mindful and pulling back a bit.You May Have More Options Now Versus LaterIf you’re considering a newly built home, here’s how this impacts you. With builders seeking fewer permits and not breaking ground on as many new homes, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn’t mean new home construction is screeching to a stop – just that the pace is slowing down now, and that’ll impact what comes to market later this year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:“Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily show declines in about six months.”So, if you’re ready and able to buy now, you may find you’ll have more newly built options to choose from now versus later on. This may be enough reason to kick off your search. Just be sure to work with a local real estate agent you know and trust throughout the process. An agent will have valuable insight into builder reputations and other key factors specific to your market. And if there isn’t much new construction near you, they’ll be able to point you toward a nearby area where there is.Bottom LineWhile it’s true new home construction is a bigger segment of the market than the norm, that’s not a bad thing. Builders aren’t overbuilding, and they’re responding to market signals to avoid repeating the mistakes that were made in 2008. If you want to buy now while new home options may be at their peak, reach out to a local real estate agent. 

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